About

Second Order Macro is a record of what I find interesting in markets and the news, and why. I try to write when something piques my interest in the markets, for example a central bank decision that changes the framework rather than just the rate or a deal that says something about where capital is willing to go.

The first-order read of most events is available everywhere within minutes; the Fed held, inflation surprised, or a bid was rejected. What interests me is the layer beneath. Why a supply shock leaves monetary policy with no good options. Why a company trades through an announcement in the opposite direction to the headline. That is usually where the useful information sits.

Much of what I write is an attempt to put an economics degree to work on live events. Three years at Warwick gave me a set of frameworks for thinking about how supply shocks propagate differently from demand shocks, and what happens to investment when the discount rate resets. The point of writing is to test whether those frameworks actually explain what is in front of me. Where they do not, that gap is usually the more interesting post.

The scope is deliberately broad. Monetary policy and rates are the recurring subject, but so is corporate activity and the way macro conditions shape what companies and investors are able to do. The Fed still sets the global tone, though the more interesting questions this year have been closer to home: gilts repricing above 5%, and a European central bank raising rates into a slowing economy for the first time since 2023.

Dhruv Deth

I hold a BSc in Economics from the University of Warwick and begin an MSc in Finance and Risk at the London School of Economics in September 2026. I have passed CFA Level I in 2025 and sit Level II in November 2026.

Disclaimer

Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. These are my own views, written in my own time. They are frequently wrong, which is rather the point of writing them down and dating them.

Contact: dhruv.deth@gmail.com